Europe is the leg to underwrite. America is upside.
This page includes the argument against us. If you only read one section, read the one that explains why the American tariff position should not be underwritten — including by you.
The two legs, and only one of them is durable.
Item 1.0Tariff position
The EU extended anti-dumping duty on Chinese e-bikes for five years from January 2025, running to roughly 2030 — 10.3% to 70.1% anti-dumping, 3.9% to 17.2% countervailing. That is a durable, legislated window, and it is the one worth building a supply chain against.
India→Americas bicycle exports rose 83% year on year, 58,000 to 106,181 units across April–November FY25. GST on bicycles and parts was cut from 12% to 5% on 22 September 2025.
Item 1.1 — the fragile leg
India's US rate has moved twice in twelve months: roughly 50% in mid-2025, 18% under the February 2026 agreement, and a flat 10% after the Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs. It is favourable today. It is not something either of us should underwrite a five-year programme on — and our plan does not require it.
| Origin | Into the US | Into the EU · e-bikes | Stability of the position |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 10% | None | US fragile · EU durable to 2030 |
| China | 56% | AD 10.3–70.1% + CVD 3.9–17.2% | EU duty extended five years from Jan 2025 |
| Taiwan | ~43% | None | Cost base well above ours |
| Vietnam | ~31% | None | Component dependency on China |
| Cambodia | ~19% | None | Component dependency on China |
Vietnam is the honest competitor, and here is where it wins.
Item 2.0The argument against us
Vietnam is further up the learning curve than we are and has real bicycle assembly capacity today. If you need volume next quarter, go there — we will not have a line until Q2 2027 and we are not going to pretend otherwise.
The question worth asking is a different one, and it is the one a rules-of-origin audit asks: how much of a Vietnamese bicycle is still Chinese?
Item 2.1 — what Ludhiana answers that assembly-only origin does not
92% of India's bicycle component supply sits within 100 km of this plant site. Frame tube, fork, rim, chain, saddle and carton can all be bought inside that radius. That is a different kind of independence from assembly-only origin, and it is the one that survives an audit rather than the one that survives a customs declaration.
Item 2.2 — none of which is our achievement
Ludhiana already builds roughly 60,000 bicycles a day. Avon alone exports over 300,000 units a year to the United States and runs 50+ ODM partnerships. We have built nothing yet. Every one of those figures is verifiable without us, and you should verify them.